Normally I don't give a shit about the Oscars, so it's appropriate that the one year I'm at least halfway interested in some of the contenders is the year that the telecast may be in jeopardy. Nevertheless, with the nominees to be announced tomorrow, the guessing games have reached a crescendo. A quartet of prognosticator's at Ed Copeland's site have weighed in with their forecasts, which have a few deviations but contain mostly uniformity similar to what I've read elsewhere. There are usually a few shocks, however, so with that in mind, here are some of my general thoughts (take them for what they're worth -- nothing):
BEST PICTURE. Not a shoo-in: Most of the favorites are vulnerable, including, I suspect, There Will Be Blood. P.T. Anderson should be in for Director and Screenplay Adaptation, Day-Lewis for Actor, and a bunch of technical awards, but if enough people in Hollywood hate the movie, who knows? Dark Horse: Into the Wild.
BEST ACTOR. I predict Johnny Depp and Denzel Washington are not sure-things as many suspect. I also don't see Viggo Mortensen getting in either. Dark Horses: James McAvoy (if Atonement goes over big) and Frank Langella.
BEST ACTRESS. A weak year, but I'm not sold that Angelina Jolie is a lock. Dark Horse: Keira Knightley, again depending on the level of Atonement-love.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR. Sorry, but I'm not sold on Casey Affleck. Dark Horse: Tommy Lee Jones and (even darker) Paul Dano.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I know this is typically the category where a Young Actress gets a slot, but I agree with Odienator that Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement) has an edge over Whatsherface, her younger, favored co-star.
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